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2015-118: Do long-haul truckers undervalue future fuel savings?

Jacob Adenbaum, Adam Copeland, and John J. Stevens | The U.S. federal government enacted fuel efficiency standards for medium and heavy trucks for the first time in September 2011. Rationales for using...

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2015-119: Un-Fortunate Sons: Effects of the Vietnam Draft Lottery on the Next...

Sarena F. Goodman and Adam M. Isen | We study how randomized variation from the Vietnam draft lottery affects the next generation's labor market. Using the universe of federal tax returns, we link...

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2016-001: Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the United States During and...

Bruce C. Fallick, Michael Lettau, and William L. Wascher | Rigidity in wages has long been thought to impede the functioning of labor markets. One recent strand of the research on wage flexibility in...

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2014-66: Default Risk and Private Student Loans: Implications for Higher...

Felicia Ionescu and Nicole Simpson | In recent years, the proportion of students facing a binding constraint on government student loans has grown. This has led to substantially increased use of...

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2016-003: Can a Bank Run Be Stopped? Government Guarantees and the Run on...

Mark A. Carlson and Jonathan D. Rose | This paper analyzes the run on Continental Illinois in 1984. We find that the run slowed but did not stop following an extraordinary government intervention,...

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2016-002: Predicting Operational Loss Exposure Using Past Losses

Filippo Curti and Marco Migueis | Operational risk models, such as the loss distribution approach, frequently use past internal losses to forecast operational loss exposure. However, the ability of...

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2016-006: To Cut or Not to Cut? On the Impact of Corporate Taxes on...

Alexander Ljungqvist and Michael Smolyansky | Do corporate tax increases destroy jobs? And do corporate tax cuts boost employment? Answering these questions has proved empirically challenging. We...

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2016-005: The Resolution of a Systemically Important Insurance Company during...

Jonathan D. Rose | This paper explores the economic issues related to systemically important insurance companies, using an example from the Great Depression, the National Surety Company. National...

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2016-004: Is Los Angeles Becoming Transit Oriented?

Jenny Schuetz, Genevieve Giuliano, and Eun Jin Shin | Over the past 20 years, local and regional governments in the Los Angeles metropolitan area have invested significant resources in building rail...

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2016-007: Interpreting Shocks to the Relative Price of Investment with a...

Luca Guerrieri, Dale Henderson, and Jinill Kim | Consumption and investment comove over the business cycle in response to shocks that permanently move the price of investment. The interpretation of...

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2016-008: Policy Externalities and Banking Integration

Michael Smolyansky | Can policies directed at the banking sector in one jurisdiction spill over and affect real economic activity elsewhere? To investigate this question, I exploit changes in tax rates...

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FEDS 2016-009: The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound

Timothy S. Hills, Taisuke Nakata, and Sebastian Schmidt | Even when the policy rate is currently not constrained by its effective lower bound (ELB), the possibility that the policy rate will become...

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FEDS 2016-010: On the Effect of Student Loans on Access to Homeownership

Alvaro A. Mezza, Daniel R. Ringo, Shane M. Sherlund, and Kamila Sommer | This paper estimates the effect of student loan debt on subsequent homeownership in a uniquely constructed administrative data...

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FEDS 2016-011: Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux

Thomas T. Laubach and John C. Williams | Persistently low real interest rates have prompted the question whether low interest rates are here to stay. This essay assesses the empirical evidence...

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FEDS 2016-013: Fiscal Stimulus and Firms: A Tale of Two Recessions

Christine L. Dobridge | In this paper, I examine the effects of a countercyclical fiscal policy that gave firms additional tax refunds--additional liquidity--at the end of the past two recessions. I...

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FEDS 2016-012: Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics

Hie Joo Ahn and James D. Hamilton | This paper develops new estimates of flows into and out of unemployment that allow for unobserved heterogeneity across workers as well as direct effects of...

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FEDS 2016-014: Deadlines and Matching

Garth Baughman | Deadlines and fixed end dates are pervasive in matching markets including school choice, the market for new graduates, and even financial markets such as the market for federal funds....

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FEDS 2016-015: Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market

Raven S. Molloy, Christopher L. Smith, Riccardo Trezzi, and Abigail Wozniak | We document a clear downward trend in labor market fluidity that is common across a variety of measures of worker and job...

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2016-016: Federal Reserve Board Statistical Releases: a Publications History

Sian L. Seldin | The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has published extensive statistical information on the U.S. economy and banking industry since 1914. This information has been...

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2016-017: Does the United States have a Productivity Slowdown or a...

David M. Byrne, John G. Fernald, and Marshall B. Reinsdorf | After 2004, measured growth in labor productivity and total-factor productivity (TFP) slowed. We find little evidence that the slowdown...

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